Theorem 3: The Late-Game Timeout¶

Claim¶

Calling a timeout when trailing by 1--3 (or tied) with less than 50 seconds is beneficial.

How We Measure It¶

We filter the historical play-by-play log for situations where:

• The home team has possession
• The score differential is between -3 and 0 (trailing by up to 3, or tied)
• Between 20 and 50 seconds remain

We group possessions by:

• Timeout: The team stops play with a timeout call.
• Play On: The team continues without calling a timeout.

We then calculate the historical win percentage for the home team in each group across a sweep of time-remaining values.

Results¶

Conclusion¶

With 36--50 seconds remaining, calling a timeout is historically beneficial.