Skip to content

Theorem 1: The 2-for-1

Claim

Rushing a shot in tied games is beneficial when there is more than one possession remaining.

How We Measure It

We filter the historical play-by-play log for tied games where the home team has possession and group each possession by strategy:

  • Rush (shoot): The possessing team takes a shot attempt.
  • Normal (hold): The possessing team holds the ball (any non-shooting action).

We calculate the historical win percentage for each group — the fraction of games where the home team went on to win given that choice.

Results

2-for-1 Win Percentage Curve

Conclusion

The 2-for-1 shows a positive signal for most of the analyzed time range.